Energy public opinion: summer Davos forum focuses on energy transformation, natural gas supply and public opinion warming

(9.17-9.23)

Xu Liping, Wu Qian, Cui Lirong

08 October 2018, 09:41 source: People's Network - public opinion channel
 

In this issue, the 2018 summer Davos forum was held in Tianjin. Energy transformation has become one of the hot topics of this forum. The development of photovoltaic industry is facing "three high one low", "big but not strong" and other issues, causing concern in the industry. Natural gas supply is vital to the vital interests of the people and affects social concerns. The supply and demand of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will start in winter.

Monitoring period: 9.17-9.23, data source: People's network public opinion data center

Davos focuses on energy transformation in summer, focusing on "green leadership in China"

On September 18th -20, the 2018 summer Davos forum was held in Tianjin. The theme of the forum was "creating an innovative society in the fourth industrial revolution". More than 200 special sessions covered various fields such as economy, finance, energy, manufacturing and so on. Among them, energy transformation has become one of the hot topics of the Davos forum. Energy innovation, energy change and smart energy have aroused heated debate.

Green development into a consensus, energy transformation is imperative

The energy industry is undergoing unprecedented changes. Energy transformation and green development have become a general consensus. Shu Yinbiao, chairman of the State Grid, said that the theme of this forum is "creating an innovative society in the fourth industrial revolution", which is closely related to the new round of energy revolution in the world. The first three industrial revolutions were triggered by the energy revolution, and the fourth industrial revolution will transform the energy utilization structure from traditional energy to non fossil energy. The Economic Daily quoted Gao Jifan, chairman of Trina Solar, as saying that the fourth industrial revolution must be accompanied by the energy revolution. Cleanliness, electrification, centralization and intellectualization will be the direction of future energy development and the only way for China's energy transformation.

Practicing "China's green leadership" has attracted global attention.

In September 19th, "China's green leadership" sub forum, energy green development, climate change and other topics raised heated debate. The participants said that China has made many attempts to cope with climate change and low carbon emissions in recent years, which has provided a lot of reference for developing countries. Lin Boqiang, Dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, said that China has played a leading role in global green development. China is leading the world in renewable energy technology and green investment. It is estimated that by 2020, the world's largest carbon market will start running. "Guangming Daily" commented that China uses facts to show the leadership of building green ecosystems.

China's efforts in tackling climate change and low carbon emissions have provided many lessons for developing countries. Its "green leadership" has also been recognized by participating guests. Steve Montford, director of the Smithson Institute for conservation biology, expressed his appreciation for China's exemplary role in green development. Jorge Albace, Secretary for international affairs of Brazil planning department, said: "China is not only our example, but also provides us with many environment-friendly development plans." At the same time, it is also pointed out that China's green leadership needs to be strengthened, and a better way of promoting renewable energy technology and climate control action needs to be promoted. Isabelle Hilton, editor of the Sino British dialogue, said that if China can extend the best green development practice to the "one belt and one way" related countries, it will change the carbon emission pattern of the world economy.

Technological innovation supports future energy development

The adjustment of energy structure is always accompanied by the application of various advanced technologies. Green energy needs technological innovation to drive it. Trina Solar chairman Gao Jifan believes that the energy Internet is the future direction of energy development. It is reported that China has been taking action in this regard. Last year, China launched the "Internet + smart energy", "energy microgrid" and "multi energy complementarity" demonstration projects, effectively promoting the development of the industry. Lin Boqiang, Dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, also pointed out that China is now promoting the development of high technology in a comprehensive way, such as solar panels and other renewable energy power generation.

Sustainable green development has become a global consensus. With the support of technological innovation, the road of energy transformation is spreading forward. Energy Internet, artificial intelligence, block chain technology have gradually entered the public view, or will generate new energy utilization mode, and will also bring risks and challenges in the new mode. The world is waiting to see how to promote energy transformation while resisting risks and achieve simultaneous and sustainable development of the social and economic environment.

"Three high one low" urgent need to break the public opinion and expect the PV industry to improve its internal strength.

As a representative of strategic emerging industries, China's photovoltaic industry has risen rapidly in recent years, becoming a few domestic industries with global market influence. But with the rapid development, the photovoltaic industry also suffers from the "three high one low" symptoms of high subsidies, high investment, high debt and low core technology content. According to public opinion, in May 31st this year, the announcement on matters related to photovoltaic power generation in 2018 (short for the 531 new deal) was launched, triggering a series of reactions, forming a further shock of China's photovoltaic industry after 2012's "double reverse" in 2012, revealing some deep-seated problems in the industry.

The industry is worried about the "three high one low" dilemma.

Subsidies have always been the core topic of photovoltaic industry. The economic reference Daily quoted industry insiders as saying that subsidy policy played an important guiding role in the rapid growth of photovoltaic industry, but the poor control of subsidies also brought problems. Under the stimulation of high subsidy policy, a large number of social capital poured into the photovoltaic industry. Blind investment not only made the industry expand rapidly, but also laid a hidden danger of overcapacity. At the same time, the problem of high debt ratio in photovoltaic industry is also accompanied by high investment expansion. In addition, the report also pointed out that the core technology content of photovoltaic industry in China is low. Experts and insiders say that China's photovoltaic industry relies on imports, including core technologies, new technologies and key equipment. There is also concern about the noise. Due to the lack of technological innovation in China, the domestic photovoltaic industry will lose its unemployment capacity advantage because of overseas technology iteration, and is in a state of being controlled by others.

Large enterprises "three high one low" more prominent exposure industry "big but not strong".

After the "531 New Deal" was released, large, medium and small enterprises were not spared. The problems faced by big enterprises are more prominent than small ones. In this regard, Guo Yihuan, assistant director of Jingke energy, said that the leading enterprises of photovoltaic industry developed rapidly under the subsidy policy and relatively relaxed financing environment, and there are still deficiencies in management, core technology and innovation ability. Under the environment of reduced subsidies and tight financing environment, the challenges faced by leading enterprises are more severe.

According to the market reaction after the "531 New Deal", large enterprises have more investment and higher liabilities, and the problems they face are more prominent than those of small enterprises. There is even a view that the photovoltaic industry "boss must die" is China's photovoltaic industry "big but not strong" microcosm.

Public opinion suggests that photovoltaic industry should improve its internal strength and strengthen technological innovation.

"China Industrial daily", "China Environmental News" published in the article said that while increasing the layout of overseas, the photovoltaic industry through more scientific and technological research and technological innovation to promote efficiency and cost reduction. From the semi annual report, we can see that at present, photovoltaic enterprises are increasing investment in research and development, and strive to win the market through hard work.

China News Network article said that in recent years, the proportion of coal in China's energy stations has continued to decline, thanks to the support of renewable energy. But the phenomenon of abandoning wind and abandoning light still exists. How to integrate fragmented green energy becomes the key to the development of the industry. The article cites the industry's point of view that the key to the development of new energy represented by photovoltaic is to improve internal strength. Tao Ye, deputy director of the renewable energy development center of the national development and Reform Commission, once said publicly: "for the renewable energy represented by photovoltaic, the strategic keynote of China's industry has not changed, and our support for it is also unwavering." Therefore, the future development of photovoltaic industry will not encounter urgent brakes and one size fits all. But if we want to survive and develop, we must break through the vitality and work hard to improve the quality. Only by grasping both inside and outside, can China's photovoltaic industry pass through the cold winter and usher in the spring.

Natural gas supply work starts public opinion forecast "gas shortage" phenomenon is difficult to reproduce

In September 15th, the LNG ship, "hili", carrying 66 thousand tons of cargo, successfully landed at the Caofeidian port of Tangshan port in Hebei, marking the start of winter natural gas conservation in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Related information triggered authoritative reports such as "people's Daily" and "Guangming Daily". "Natural gas supply" this "national topic" once again triggered a high media focus.

The situation of natural gas supply is still grim. In winter, supply and demand are saved.

Some media and experts believe that the gap between supply and demand of natural gas is large, and the task of natural gas supply is arduous. The economic reference daily, based on the data released by China National Natural Gas Development Report 2018, issued by the State Energy Bureau, pointed out that the estimated consumption of natural gas in China in 2018 was about 271 billion cubic meters (excluding gas supply to Hong Kong and Macao), an increase of 13.5% over the same period last year. There is also a forecast that the gap between supply and demand of natural gas will be around 24 billion cubic meters this year, and how to avoid repeating last year's "gas shortage" has become a top priority for relevant departments and enterprises.

In terms of local media, Guangzhou daily, Tai'an daily and other media have said that the situation of natural gas supply will not be optimistic because of the impact of urban economic structure, energy structure and LNG price rise.

Zhang Dawei, director of the sales and marketing department of Sinopec natural gas company, and so on, predicted that the supply of natural gas might still be in a relatively tight state this winter from the perspective of resource supply and market demand in Southern China.

Increase effective supply to revitalize stock resources, "gas shortage" phenomenon will not be reproduced.

Some experts from the perspective of supply and demand in-depth analysis, think that China's "gas shortage" phenomenon will not happen again.

First of all, our country is striving to increase the supply of gas. According to the China Energy daily, interoperability between China Myanmar pipeline and Sinopec Guangxi pipeline helps to optimize the supply of natural gas pipeline network, realize resource exchange between North and south, and provide protection for winter supply. In twenty-first Century, the economic report pointed out that the Qatar Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd and CNPC signed an annual agreement to supply 3 million 400 thousand tonnes of liquefied petroleum gas to China, which is valid for 22 years. Based on the above reports, the Southern Metropolis Daily said that since the beginning of this year, "three barrels of oil" upstream enterprises have been organizing multi-source gas resources, while the state has accelerated the key project of interconnecting natural gas infrastructure, and a number of key projects are being intensified. Insiders estimate that under this series of preparation measures, the "gas shortage" will be eased this winter.

Second, natural gas dealers will be stocked up ahead of schedule this year. An insider, who declined to be named, said that the cost of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) would be up to 30-40% due to the rise in international oil prices and the fall in the RMB exchange rate. Although the import price is now about 4500 yuan, it is still much lower than the high domestic sales point last winter. Many traders are interested in this point and are interested in stockpiling goods. "Energy Magazine" WeChat also holds similar views. The article said that in the Guangxi Beihai LNG terminal and TianJin Railway Station terminal tanker filling area, there have been transport vehicles to install LNG, some dealers began to prepare for this winter's market ahead of schedule.

Finally, China should take measures to control and control the peak and fill the valley. The China Securities Journal quoted Cheng Xiaoyong, director of Baocheng Futures Research Institute, as saying that "gas shortage" highlighted the urgency of natural gas peak shaving and supply while also forced the layout of gas storage facilities in a more scientific and rational manner. In addition to increasing production, the key to ensuring supply is to speed up the capacity of storage and peak load regulation. In terms of demand, China's "coal to gas" insists on "upgrading with gas" and gradual progress, instead of the "one size fits all" approach in the winter of 2017.

The media proposes to pay attention to the butterfly effect of natural gas supply and demand.

The economic reference daily wrote that we should pay attention to people's livelihood problems such as rising prices of natural gas supply and demand. At the same time, from a deeper level, in the stage of high energy consumption turning to clean, low carbon, safe and efficient stage, China's economic development will shift from scale expansion to high quality development stage. We must consider various economic and social cost factors and take full account of the spillover effect of reform measures.

It can be predicted that this winter's natural gas supply work in China will continue to pay attention to the heat of the media. The orderly implementation of the work of ensuring supply will once again be focused on the media; and effective measures to alleviate the "gas shortage" will also lead to the media coverage and dissemination.

(Editor: Wang Kun, Zhang Xiang)